After the sell-off in global markets this week, markets will be closely monitoring the relative impact of the COVID-19 virus. Elsewhere, focus will be on the BoC and RBA meetings and Super Thursday but also UK-EU talks. Official talks on the deal regulating the future relationship between the UK and the EU will start next week and negotiating guidelines published by both sides this week not surprisingly confirmed that these will be difficult talks.
- Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to dip into contraction in February.
- Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 08:55) – The preliminary February German PMI readings, released so far, remained in contraction territory. The final reading is expected to be confirmed at 47.8.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to tick down to 50.5 in February from 50.9 in January, compared to a 14-year high of 60.8 in August of 2018.
Tuesday – 03 March 2020
- Interest Rate Decision and Statement (AUD, GMT 03:30) – The Reverse Bank of Australia is expected to keep the 0.75% rate setting. However, the impact of a sharp slowing in Chinese demand for Australia’s commodities amid the COVID-19 outbreak and the disruption caused by the wildfires will pressure the RBA to cut rates by the middle of this year.
- US Democratic Primaries Super Tuesday – The US Democratic Party primaries reach their most important date, with fourteen states set to vote. The results will shape the race to the Democratic convention in July, where the party’s candidate to the Presidential Election will be nominated.
- Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Eurozone inflation remains far below the ECB’s target, with preliminary readings for February not expected to show any improvement.
Wednesday – 04 March 2020
- Gross Domestic Product (AUD, GMT 00:30) –The latest data out of Australia suggests Q4 GDP may be weaker than expected, and that’s before the Q1 impact of the worst-in-decades wildfires, and the sharp drop in Chinese tourist visits over the Lunar New Year period along with other economic disruptions caused by the coronavirus outbreak.
- ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 13:15) – Employment change is seen drifting to 191k in the number of employed people in February, compared to the 291k reading seen last month.
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to hold steady from 55.5 in January. The “soft data” measures have strengthened into 2020, after oscillating around lean but positive levels in 2019 with hits from UAW-GM strike and problems at Boeing. Sentiment has been lifted sharply with the signing of the phase-one deal, reduced Brexit uncertainty in Europe, high and rising consumer confidence, surging stock prices, and a firm GDP growth path. We have yet to see a visible hit from the 737 MAX production halt or covid-19 supply chain disruptions.
- Interest Rate Decision and Conference (CAD, GMT 15:00) – No change is seen in the current 1.75% policy setting.
Thursday – 20 February 2020
- OPEC Meeting – The OPEC meeting is scheduled for the March 5-6 in Vienna. The Financial Times reports that Saudi Arabia is asking producers, including Russia, for a production cut of an additional 1m barrels per day.
Friday – 21 February 2020
- NFP and Labour Market Data (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 170k February nonfarm payroll rise is seen, following a 225k increase in January. A flat reading for factory jobs in February has assumed given the headwind from Boeing, and a 19k boost from assumed Census hiring as this temporary job count starts to climb more rapidly to a likely May peak in the 470k area from the 13k figure in January. The jobless rate should hold steady at 3.6% for a second month. Average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% m/m, for a y/y gain of 3.0%.
- Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Canada’s employment increased by 35,000 (+0.2%) in January, all in full-time work, while the unemployment rate fell 0.1%. For February, the unemployment rate is expected to rise at 5.6% .
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