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Events to Look Out For Next Week

  • Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The Chinese CPI is expected to spike in January to 4.9%y/y following a steady December and after hitting its highest since 2012 in November.

Tuesday – 11 February 2020

  • Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The economy’s most important figure, Q4 GDP is expected to be higher at 1% q/q following the 0.4% reading for Q3.
  • Industrial and Manufacturing Production (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The two indices are expected to have grown to 0.2% m/m and -0.1% respectively in December, with manufacturing production recovering partially from a -1.7% decline in the prior month.
  • Housing Starts and Building Permits (CAD, GMT 13:15) – Housing starts slowed in December, to a 197.3k unit pace from a revised 204.3k rate in November. In January, the index is expected to bounce back to 210K. The separate building permits report revealed a 2.4% drop in values during November, while a growth up to 1% is anticipated for December.

Wednesday – 12 February 2020

  • Interest Rate Decision and Statement (NZD, GMT 20:00) – RBNZ is expected to cut rates by 25 bp to 0.75%. The bank held rates steady at 1.00% in November, upending widespread expectations for a cut to 0.75%.

Thursday – 13 February 2020

  • BoC’s Governor Poloz speech and RBA’s Governor Lowe speech (NZD, GMT 00:15)
  • Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 07:00) – The German HICP inflation for January is seen steady at 1.6% y/y.
  • Consumer Price Index and core (USD, GMT 13:30) – The headline CPI should rise 0.1% in January, with a 0.2% core price increase, following respective December readings of 0.2% and 0.1%. As-expected gains would result in a headline y/y increase of 2.4%, up from 2.3% in December.

Friday – 14 February 2020

  • Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 07:00) – German Preliminary Q4 results are expected to slow down, at an annualised rate of 0.9% compared to 1.0% last quarter. Eurozone GDP should remain unchanged.
  • Retail Sales (USD, GMT 13:30) – Retail Sales are expected to have grown by 0.3% in January, and 0.4% for the ex-auto figure. Gasoline prices should have a neutral impact on retail activity, given an estimated slight -0.2% drop for the CPI gasoline index.
  • Michigan Sentiment (USD, GMT 15:00) – US consumer sentiment rose to 99.8 in the final January print from the University of Michigan survey, versus 99.1 in the preliminary reading for this month. The index is up 0.5 ticks from December’s 99.3. This is the best reading since the 100.0 in May. The preliminary February Michigan sentiment reading is forecast at 99.9.

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

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